Launch Sequence
By Haig Stoddard Ward's AutoWorld, Jan 1, 2005 12:00 PM

Calendar 2005 will bring 46 major redesigns or entirely new light vehicles to the U.S. market, compared with an average annual rate of 35 over the past seven years.

More than half of the market debuts are expected in the fourth quarter. But there is a good chance some will be pulled ahead into September, while others could be delayed until 2006. Some notable vehicles are coming early in 2005, including the new Dodge Charger, Hummer H3, Lincoln Mark LT and Saab 9-7X, as well as redesigns to the Kia Sportage, Nissan Xterra, Toyota Avalon and Volkswagen Jetta.

Over the last seven years, about 41% of new/redesigned vehicles have gone on sale in the fourth quarter, with the first and third quarters both at close to 21% and the second quarter garnering 17% of the new launches.

The exceptions were 1999, when several manufacturers pulled some intros into the third quarter from the fourth quarter, and in 2001 when General Motors Corp. started selling its redesigned large and midsize SUVs early in the year. Thus, fourth-quarter intros accounted for 32.4% and 34.4% in 1999 and 2001, respectively.

Calendar Year U.S. Sales Starts of New and Redesigned Vehicles
(1998 Through Projections in 2005)

	Percent of Debuts by Quarter
	1Q	2Q	3Q	4Q	Actual Number of Annual Debuts
1998	21.9	15.6	18.8	43.8	32
1999	20.6	20.6	26.5	32.4	34
2000	12.9	9.7	32.3	45.2	31
2001	37.5	18.8	9.4	34.4	32
2002	22.2	13.9	16.7	47.2	36
2003	13.6	22.7	22.7	40.9	44
2004	17.6	17.6	17.6	47.1	34
7-Year Avg.	20.9	17.0	20.6	41.5	35
Projected 2005	17.4	17.4	13.0	52.2	46
Source: WardsAuto.com

Planned U.S. Debuts in 2005
(Some dates are Ward's projections)

First Quarter
Dodge Charger	New
Hummer H3	New
Kia Sportage	Redesign
Lincoln Mark LT	New
Nissan Xterra	Redesign
Saab 9-7X	New
Toyota Avalon	Redesign
Volkswagen Jetta	Redesign
Second Quarter
Audi A3	New
Honda Ridgeline	New
Hyundai Sonata	Redesign
Lexus GS Series	Redesign
Lexus RX400h	New
Mercedes M-Class	Redesign
Pontiac Torrent	New
Volkswagen Passat	Redesign
Third Quarter
BMW 3-Series	Redesign
Hyundai Accent	Redesign
Kia Rio	Redesign
Mercedes R-Class	New
Pontiac Solstice	New
Subaru B9X	New
Fourth Quarter
Acura RSX	Redesign
BMW X7	New
Buick Lucerne	Redesign (replaces LeSabre)
Chevrolet HHR	New
Chevrolet Impala	Redesign
Chevrolet Monte Carlo	Redesign
Dodge Neon	Redesign
Ford Fusion	New
Honda Civic	Redesign
Hyundai TG	Redesign (replaces XG350)
Infiniti I35	Redesign
Infiniti M Series	Redesign
Land Rover Range Rover Sport	New
Lexus IS 300	Redesign
Lexus LS 430	Redesign
Lincoln Zephyr	New
Mazda Miata	Redesign
Mercedes B-Class	New
Mercedes S-Class	Redesign
Mercury Milan	New
Mitsubishi Eclipse	Redesign
Mitsubishi Lancer	Redesign
Mitsubishi Raider	New
Suzuki Grand Vitara	Redesign
Source: WardsAuto.com

One company better at spacing out intros is Toyota Motor Corp. Its fourth-quarter average of 38.5% is close to the industry average, but 50% of the debuts typically occur during the first half of the year, compared with about 38% for the industry.

With 19 new vehicles overall coming in 2005 that do not directly replace any models from the prior year, there will be a net gain of four vehicle lines available to buyers by the end of 2005 — growing to 292 from 288 at the end of 2004.

Eight of the new models will be cross/utility vehicles (including the hybrid-electric Lexus RX 400h). Four will be pickups — including Honda Motor Co. Ltd.'s new Ridgeline — and three are SUVs, for a total 15 trucks.

Also new on the car front will be the Audi A3, Lincoln Zephyr and Pontiac Solstice roadster. Ford Motor Co. in the fourth quarter will roll out the Ford Fusion and Mercury Milan, which essentially replace the Ford Taurus and Mercury Sable for the retail market.

And redesigns are on tap for the Dodge Neon and Honda Civic. Among larger cars, Chevrolet will substantially restyle the Impala and Monte Carlo, Hyundai replaces the Sonata with a domestically produced version, and GM replaces the aged Buick LeSabre with the Lucerne.